Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
