Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
